Presidential Elections Can Sway Home Sales, Study Finds

The months leading up to a presidential election are often lackluster for home sales, which then tend to rebound right after the election regardless of the results, finds a new analysis produced for The Real Deal by Miller Samuel CEO Jonathan Miller.

Between June and October, home sales have been 12.7% weaker in presidential election years compared with non-election years, the study shows. Home sales then recover in November and December, catching up to  and even passing levels not seen since the beginning of the year.

“Election years are always the toughest years because people are hesitant,” Stephen Kliegerman of Halstead Property Development Marketing told The Real Deal. “They’re waiting to see an outcome.”

For the analysis, Miller tracked co-op purchases in New York over three presidential election years and compared them to non-presidential years. Through June to October during presidential election years, he found that home sales were weaker compared to non-election years. September tended to show the biggest difference.

Then, “beginning in November during an election year, sales overpower their non-election year counterpart, with the release of pent-up demand occurring well into the spring,” Miller told The Real Deal.

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