If you’ve been watching the Orange County market and feeling like 2026 looks a lot like 2025, you’re not wrong. The headlines online are loud and contradictory, but the actual numbers tell a calmer, clearer story. Here’s where we stand at the midpoint of the year — and what it means whether you’re thinking about buying or selling.
The big shift: inventory has flipped. For most of this year, there were more homes for sale than a year ago. That changed this spring. We’re now sitting at about 4,551 active listings across the county — the most we’ve seen since last September — but that’s actually around 2% fewer homes than were on the market this time last year. After starting January near 2,700 listings, supply has climbed roughly 68% so far in 2026, and it should keep building toward a summer peak sometime in July or August before easing off through the back half of the year.
Buyer demand hasn’t really moved. New pending sales are running around 1,637 a month. That’s almost identical to last year’s pace, and to 2024 and 2023 as well. The reason is simple: affordability. With mortgage rates parked above 6.5% — around 6.68% as of this report — buyers can only stretch so far. Rates have an outsized effect on this market: a dip under 6.5% tends to wake buyers up, while anything above it tends to slow them down. Earlier this spring rates were flirting with the 5s before global events pushed them back up, and for now they’re expected to stay elevated.
The result is a more balanced, slower market. It currently takes about 83 days to sell the average Orange County listing at today’s pace — a touch faster than last year’s 85 days, but far from the 41-to-51-day frenzy of 2023 and 2024. Detached homes are still the bright spot, moving in about 76 days, while condos and townhomes are taking closer to 94.
What this means if you’re selling: Your home can still sell quickly — but only if it’s priced right out of the gate. The hottest segment right now is detached homes under $1.5 million. Buyers have more options and more patience than they did a couple of years ago, so an aggressive list price will sit. Price to the market, not to the headlines, and you can still win.
What this means if you’re buying: You have a little more breathing room than buyers did in 2023 — more selection and less of a bidding-war pressure cooker — especially before inventory peaks this summer. Well-priced homes still go fast, so be ready to move, but you’re negotiating in a far healthier balance than you would have been two years ago.
If you want to know exactly where your home or your buying power stands in this market — not a national headline — I’m happy to put together a quick, no-pressure snapshot.
Garry McDonald | REALTOR®
Rise Realty | DRE# 01781703
📞 (949) 534-6686
✉ garry@garrymcdonald.net
🌐 www.garrymcdonald.net