More than 1.5 million “boomerang buyers” – those negatively affected by the housing crisis – could re-enter the housing market at some point in the next three years, according to a study released by TransUnion on Wednesday.
Boomerang buyers include those who are 60 or more days delinquent on a mortgage loan, have had a mortgage loan modified, or have lost a home through foreclosure, short sale, or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure. TransUnion estimates that about 700,000 boomerang buyers could re-enter the mortgage market in 2015, and another 2.2 million could re-enter the market over the next five years.
“Based on our study findings, the burst had a significant and dramatic impact on many consumers’ ability to re-enter the mortgage market after suffering through the downturn,” said Joe Mellman, vice president and head of TransUnion’s mortgage group. “It’s been over seven years since the beginning of the mortgage crisis; this is significant because many derogatory items, such as foreclosures and short sales can prevent consumers from qualifying for a new mortgage for a period of time. The timing of that challenge can vary: for example, four years must pass after a short sale and seven years must pass after a foreclosure. As consumers responsibly manage their credit and pass these milestones, we anticipate a tide of newly mortgage-eligible consumers entering the market.”
In order to determine consumers’ ability to re-enter the mortgage market, TransUnion’s study analyzed the credit-active population in the United States during a three-year period from the end of 2006, which was the end of the housing bubble, until the end of 2009, which was the end of the housing bust and in 2014.
The study found that only about 18 percent, or 1.3 million, out of the 7 million impacted consumers had recovered enough by December 2014 to meet agency credit underwriting guidelines. The study also determined, however, that 2.2 million of the remaining 5.7 million consumers could potentially meet those underwriting guidelines over the next five years.